Barack Obama’s public relations department, otherwise known as the mainstream media, has already starting firing their first shots across John McCain’s bow in the lead up to the November battle for the White House. Its not the full-fledged shock and awe campaign yet. Rather, they are more subtle IED-type munitions buried in newspaper op-ed pieces, weekly news magazine “special reports”, and Sunday morning pundit debates. Their goal is to so dishearten you on the prospects of a Republican winning the White House that you just tune out and surrender the election before the campaigns even begin. They will wow you with biased polls, phony election statistics, and colorful charts that show “conclusively” how it is a foregone conclusion that B. Hussein Obama will be the 44th President of the United States. The Clarke Report is hear to tell you that the media’s action line is the furthest thing from the truth by showing you with actual facts, not campaign propaganda, that John McCain has a great chance to defeat the dems’ messiah this fall.
Despite everything you read in the newspaper and hear on television, in this country we still elect the President by the Electoral College. That means that national horse race polls, the media’s favorite tool to tell you how you feel, mean bubkus. In the Electoral College, each state is assigned a specific number of electors equal to the amount of its’ representatives and Senators in Congress. Those electors are designated when a candidate wins a state’s popular vote (except in Maine and Nebraska which use a tiered system). That means Pennsylvania voters choose who gets Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes and so on. Thus, if you really want to effectively gauge how a presidential candidate is faring, the best way is to look at state polls (preferably by state outlets like newspapers or non-profits as they know the terrain better) and past election results. If the mainstream media wasn’t actively stumping for Obama and actually used this method, they would see that B. Hussein is the one with the uphill climb to the presidency, not McCain.
The simplest way for Obama to be victorious is to hold onto all of the states John Kerry won in 2004 and take away one of President Bush’s states. This strategy is one of the main reasons why Obama won the democratic nomination. dems believe that with the aid of an overwhelming black turnout he can steal a few southern or mid-western states and with a wave of young voters he can flip a western state or two, all the while protecting perennial blue states. His main targets seem to be Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.
Virginia:Kerry won 87% of the black vote and was successful among moderates by more than 15 points in 2004. Yet, the President took him to the woodshed, winning “Old Dominion” by 8 points. For Obama to win here, more than 95% of all blacks will have to vote for him PLUS he will have to swing more moderates, just to squeak out a victory. I do not doubt that blacks will swarm to the polls in mass for Obama. However, considering that McCain will probably garner significantly more of Virginia’s veteran population than Bush did (63%) and the fact that many of Hillary’s disgruntled female supporters tend to be a bit long in the tooth, just like McCain himself, an Obama victory in Virginia will take a campaign of epic proportions. Since former governor Mark Warner is not even being considering for the Veep slot due to his Senate candidacy and Sen. Jim Webb just took himself off the short list, Obama is unlikely to get a boost from his running mate selection. I just don’t see Virginia going blue. Sorry.
Georgia: The President won Georgia by 17 points despite Kerry taking 88% of the black vote. Even if EVERY SINGLE black person in the “Peach State” votes for Obama, he will still have to find 5 points somewhere else in order to win. If you consider no candidate in the history of democracy has won 100% of any ethnicity, religion, or ideology and take into account that 13% of mainly white, lunch bucket dems who have already shown a distaste for Obama in the primaries (remember those evil, gun-toting, religiomaniacs you made fun of in Hollywood a few months ago, Barry?) voted for Bush in 2004, it doesn’t look good for B. Hussein.
North Carolina: Same story. Bush won here by 12 points. Kerry won 85% of the black vote. Only 17% of the states’ voters identify as liberal, while nearly half call themselves conservative. Also, this is one of the very few states where the President won those who identify themselves as independent, defeating Kerry among them 56-41. The reasons for Bush’s success among these “independent” voters was that they were predominantly active and retired military personnel. You don’t need to be a psychic to know that a Vietnam Prisoner of War who refused an invitation from Ho Chi Minh to go home because he would not abandon his men, will NOT lose any ground among veterans. So again, Obama will need an electoral landslide never before seen in that state by winning over 98% of the black vote and hope that military men forget that the reason McCain needs help brushing his hair in the morning is because the Vietcong twisted his arms like a pretzel and pulled them out of their sockets in an unsuccessful attempt to get American secrets out of him. Very unlikely.
New Mexico: Here, Obama is counting on democratic voters who defected to Bush in 04′ (nearly 14%) to come back home and conservatives who are upset over McCain’s failed “shamnesty” bill to stay away from the polls. Unfortunately, he may be on to something. However, the trump card will be the Hispanic population that makes up 32% of New Mexico’s population. McCain is the senator of the neighboring state of Arizona, where he has the support of 75% of the Hispanics. Bush only won 44% of New Mexico’s Hispanics in 2004. Thus, an issue that has hurt him among white conservatives elsewhere will probably be his savior in the “Land of Enchantment” as even the smallest of bumps among Hispanics can curtail any gains Obama makes elsewhere and protect the 2 point advantage that the President enjoyed. Now, if Obama selects the popular Hispanic governor of that state, Bill Richardson, as his running mate all bets are off. But until that happens, I am confident that McCain will win New Mexico.
That leaves Missouri, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada in play. That is 48 electoral votes, more than enough to swing the Electoral College . . . . but ONLY if Obama can also hold ALL of Kerry’s states. One of the reasons that Republicans nominated McCain is that he appeals to many moderates and conservative democrats in weak blue states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
Here in PA, McCain is VERY popular. Outside of the democratic havens of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, he is polling in the mid 60% range, which is far higher than Bush ever polled in the lead-up to 04′ . In past elections, high inner city turnout negated suburban and rural GOP advantages. Kerry won by a slim margin of 2% for that reason along with a 17 point advantage among moderates. It would be insane to believe that Obama could hold that type of lead with moderates here. With expected gains among veterans and seniors, the rising Hispanic population, and the traditional support of the soccer moms, NASCAR dads and gun-totin’, religiomaniac rednecks, outside of picking Fast Eddie as his vice president I don’t see how Obama can win the Keystone State.
New Hampshire: This is the state that breathed new life into McCain’s nomination hopes. He won there by a landslide in January and beat Bush by a substantial margin in 2000. In contrast, Obama lost New Hampshire to Hillary in the primary. Those Granite Staters tend to be unpredictable, but one thing is for sure, they love them some town-hall meetings. And McCain is the undisputed king of town halls. Advantage: McCain.
Michigan: Kerry won here by 3 points in 2004. He won over 90% of the black vote and a 14 point margin among moderates. Those moderates tend to be white, blue collar workers. As I have mentioned before, Obama has not polled well among working class Americans, especially when he makes ignorant comments about us. I know of no one who thinks that Obama can win moderates by the same margin that Kerry did. Factor in the fact that in 2000 McCain beat Bush handily here during the primary, where both democrats and independents can vote, and you’ll see that he has a real shot to take another blue state from B. Hussein. The final nail in the coffin may be if McCain chooses native son Mitt Romney as his vice president. I would bet a paycheck that a McCain/Romney ticket would win Michigan and their 17 electoral votes.
Wisconsin: Kerry beat the President by a mere 20,000 votes in the Badger State. There aren’t enough blacks (only 5% of the population) who live there to carry Obama on their backs like in other states. That means that he would have to hold Kerry’s lead in every single demographic to hold onto Wisconsin. Again, Kerry won moderates by 8 points. The whole reason we picked McCain was to close that gap. If McCain picks up even 1% among moderates, he wins Wisconsin.
Minnesota: Same story as Wisconsin. The black population is even smaller (3%) and Kerry’s margin among moderates was larger (17%).
So, McCain may very well cede 48 electoral votes from Missouri, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada to Obama. However, he could also pick up PA, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, resulting in a pickup of 62 electoral votes. In that scenario, he would have a net gain of 14 electoral votes! And that is before I have even mentioned the Holy Grail of Republican politics–California.
The numbers are better in Cali than one would think. Blacks only make up 6% of the voters, so they are insignificant even with a huge margin. Latinos, though, account for 21%. Kerry won them by 31 points. If McCain improves among them and closes the gap with moderates (Kerry won by 23), the margin of victory statewide (9 points) can be erased rather easily. McCain will spend more time in California than any other Republican since Reagan. If it pays off and he wins there, its over. Put simply, if McCain somehow won California, Obama would need to hold EVERY other Kerry state PLUS he would have to sweep the GOP held swing states of Missouri, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada AND win in either Virginia, North Carolina, or Georgia.
My point with this long ranting is: DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE. Campaigns are unpredictable. Issues change. Candidates make mistakes. Voters change their minds. Don’t feed into the garbage that the mainstream media is feeding you. McCain can win the White House. We elect our president. We don’t coronate him. Make B. Hussein Obama earn it, don’t hand it to him with your apathy.